Chance to reach the Sweet 16: 12.2 percent
Historical chance for a No. 11 seed to reach the Sweet 16: 9.9 percent
The Phoenix face an uphill battle in a first-round matchup against No. 6 seed Tennessee. The Lady Vols’ 19-12 record belies just how dangerous they can be. Just ask South Carolina. Tennessee lost to the Gamecocks three times but by an average margin of just 6.7 points, and it was a buzzer-beating three-pointer shy of handing the nation’s No. 1 team its first loss.
However, Green Bay is battle-tested. The Horizon League champion made the most of its matchups against power conference schools this season, earning a pair of wins over ranked teams — Creighton and Washington State — during its nonconference slate. Led by junior guard Bailey Butler’s 5.5 assists per game, the Phoenix’s 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio tops the nation. Also, look for Horizon League first-team selection Natalie McNeal to parlay her career-high 32-point performance in the conference championship game into a strong outing against Tennessee. A round-of-32 game against No. 3 seed North Carolina State could await.
Green Bay hasn’t appeared in the NCAA tournament since 2018, but Coach Kevin Borseth brings a wealth of March Madness experience. In his 21st year with Green Bay across two stints, Borseth has guided the program to 13 NCAA tournament appearances, including a pair of wins.
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